Free calculator
Lottery shrink calculator for gas station and c-store operators.
Enter pack volume, average ticket value, and your estimated shrink rate. See annualized exposure and where your station sits against the well-managed / median / high-shrink ranges.
Pack volume
$5 packs typically run 60; $20 packs run 30
Shrink and scale
Well-managed: < 0.5%. Median: 1–3%. High: 4–8%.
Estimated exposure
Industry median (1–3%)
Typical for independents reconciling manually. The recoverable share when moving to serial-level tracking is usually 60-75%.
Weekly shrink = packs × tickets/pack × avg value × shrink rate. Annualized = × 52. Industry benchmarks from NACS reports and StationPro pilot data.
How this is computed.
Pack volume, packs activated per week.
A typical independent activates 4–12 packs per week. Multi-store operators count per store.
Average ticket face value.
Mix-weighted across $1, $2, $5, $10, $20 scratchers. Most operators see a weighted average of $5–$8.
Tickets per pack.
Varies by game; typical pack contains 30–150 tickets. $5 packs typically run 60 tickets; $20 packs run 30.
Estimated shrink rate (as % of pack revenue).
Well-managed: < 0.5%. Median independent: 1–3%. High-shrink store: 4-8%.
Weekly exposure formula.
Weekly exposure = packs/week × tickets/pack × avg ticket value × shrink rate.
Annualized exposure.
Annual exposure = weekly × 52.
Industry benchmark comparison.
Your station's shrink % maps to one of three ranges: well-managed / median / high. Provides context, not judgment.
What the result tells you.
Most operators who run this calculator are surprised by the annualized number. A 2% shrink rate at 8 packs/week × 60 tickets × $5 = $250/week × 52 = $13,000/year per store. Across 5 stores, $65,000. Closing the gap from median (2%) to well-managed (<0.5%) typically recovers 75% of that, the difference is whether you have serial-level reconciliation.
Use this when…
- Sizing the lottery shrink problem at your stations.
- Building the ROI case for moving from manual to serial-level reconciliation.
- Comparing portfolio shrink exposure across stores.
- Estimating the value of a 30-day reconciliation discipline.
Related.
Features
Buyer guides
Lottery reconciliation software with serial-gap detection.
Barcode-scan packs in and out. The system tracks every scratcher serial, flags missing tickets the moment a gap appears, and ties shrinkage back to the shift on the clock, reconciled daily against state-commission settlement reports.
Gas station loss prevention software with per-shift attribution.
AI anomaly detection across cash variance, lottery serial gaps, fuel margin drops, and inventory shrink, each event tied to the on-shift clerk, with the camera moment that lines up.
From the blog
Loss attribution beats theft prevention.
Why the goal isn't to stop shrinkage at an independent station, it's to know who, when, and how. A field guide to building an attribution system instead of a security one.
The lottery shrinkage playbook.
How to instrument scratcher accountability across barcode scanning, serial-gap detection, and shift attribution. The four-week sprint that closes the leak.
FAQs.
How accurate is the estimate?
Directionally accurate; not precise. The biggest unknown is your actual shrink rate, most operators without serial-level tracking guess low. Use the calculator to test sensitivities; the real number comes from running serial-level reconciliation for 30 days.
Does this include draw-game shrink?
No, only scratcher (instant ticket) shrink. Draw-game shrink (Powerball, Mega Millions) is a separate category with different mechanics, typically driven by terminal-vs-POS sync issues rather than physical loss.
What's a realistic target shrink rate?
Under 0.5% of pack revenue is achievable with serial-level reconciliation and 30 days of pattern detection. Operators rarely hit zero; some residual variance (count error, vendor short-ships) is inevitable.
See how StationPro automates lottery shrink calculator.
A 30-minute demo. We walk through the underlying workflow in your station's actual data.