How to forecast cash and working capital for a multi-store gas station portfolio.

Why a P&L cannot tell you if you have cash

The monthly P&L shows accrual accounting: revenue is booked when earned, expenses when incurred. Cash flow is a different question. Revenue earned on a customer's credit card is booked the day of the sale, but the cash hits your bank 2 days later. A vendor invoice is booked when received but paid 14 to 30 days later.

In a fuel station, the gap between accrual and cash is large and pulsing. A normal week might have:

• $280K of fuel sales (75% credit card, 25% cash)
• $45K of inside sales (50% card, 50% cash)
• $210K fuel prepay due Tuesday
• $22K payroll due Friday
• $8K of vendor invoices due Wednesday and Thursday
• $31K of card deposits coming Wednesday for Monday sales
• $31K of card deposits Thursday for Tuesday sales
• $33K of card deposits Friday for Wednesday sales

Stack the timing and a perfectly profitable week shows a $40K cash gap on Tuesday afternoon (fuel prepay due, deposits not yet arrived). Multiply by 5 stores and the gap is $200K of working capital that must be sitting in the operating account for the week to work.

Step 1: build a 13-week rolling cash forecast

The 13-week cash forecast is the standard tool for asset-heavy small businesses. Why 13 weeks: it covers a full quarter, lines up with most lender reporting, and is short enough that you can update weekly without it becoming a project.

Structure (one column per week, one row per line):

• Beginning cash balance
• Operating receipts (fuel cash, fuel card deposits, inside cash, inside card deposits, lottery commissions, ATM surcharge, ATM withdrawals, money services commissions)
• Operating disbursements (fuel prepay or net, vendor payments, payroll, rent, utilities, insurance, credit card processing fees, royalties, loan payments, taxes)
• Net operating cash flow
• Ending cash balance

Fill the first 2 to 3 weeks with known scheduled items (you know payroll dates, you know fuel delivery schedule). Weeks 4 to 13 use rolling averages from your back office data. Update every Monday with the prior week actuals.

Step 2: model the fuel prepay cycle by supplier

Fuel prepay is the single largest non-payroll disbursement and the most variable. Different suppliers have different terms:

• Major brand jobbers (Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron): often net 1 to net 3, sometimes requiring autodraft on the day after delivery
• Unbranded suppliers: usually prepay, autodraft on day of delivery or 1 day before
• Bulk diesel for truck stops: often net 7 to net 14 once a credit history is established

Map each supplier and each store. Some operators consolidate to one supplier per region for working capital reasons (fewer prepay cycles, longer terms after history is built).

For the forecast, plot every scheduled fuel delivery 4 weeks out (you usually know this from your supplier portal) and the corresponding prepay date. Stations that miss a prepay autodraft because the account was short get moved to COD terms and have to fund the next delivery in full at point of sale.

Step 3: model the card settlement gap

Credit card sales convert to cash with a 1 to 3 day lag, depending on processor and weekend timing. A sale on Friday at 5 PM typically hits the bank Tuesday morning. Your forecast needs to know this.

Practical settlement timing for most operators:

• Visa/Mastercard credit and debit: 2 business days
• Discover: 2 to 3 business days
• American Express (when accepted): 2 to 3 business days, sometimes longer
• EBT: 1 to 2 business days
• Fleet cards (WEX, Comdata, etc.): 2 to 5 business days, sometimes weekly batch

In the forecast: book the bank deposit on the day the money is expected to arrive, not the day of the sale. The gap between sale date and deposit date is your permanent working capital requirement on card sales.

Step 4: project payroll and recurring disbursements

Payroll is the most predictable disbursement. Project every payroll date for the next 13 weeks, including the payroll tax disbursement that hits a few days later. Plug in the standard amount per store, adjust for seasonal hires or known schedule changes.

Other recurring disbursements:

• Rent (monthly, fixed)
• Utilities (monthly, varies by season)
• Insurance (monthly or annual)
• Software subscriptions
• Loan payments
• Card processing fees (monthly, varies with volume)
• Lottery commission settlement (varies by state)

Step 5: stress-test the forecast

A base forecast is the starting point. Run two scenarios:

The bad week

What if fuel sales drop 15 percent for 2 weeks because a nearby competitor opens? What if a hurricane closes the store for 4 days? What if a major fleet account moves to a chain? Replay the forecast with the shock applied and see when the cash balance goes negative.

The growth scenario

What if you take on a new store? An acquisition closes 60 days from now and adds $180K of weekly fuel sales but also $140K of weekly fuel prepay. The new store needs 30 to 60 days of working capital cushion from your operating account. Forecast it.

Step 6: set your working capital triggers

Once the forecast is running, define triggers for action:

• Green: ending cash above 30 days of opex. Normal operations.
• Yellow: ending cash 15 to 30 days of opex. Tighten vendor payments, push fuel delivery dates if possible, defer non-critical disbursements.
• Red: ending cash below 15 days of opex. Draw on line of credit, accelerate AR (if any), negotiate emergency terms with the largest vendor.

Set the triggers in the forecast itself so they fire automatically. A back-office system with banking integration (most use Plaid) updates the actual cash position daily and emails the operator when a trigger crosses.

The 5 mistakes operators make on working capital

1. Pulling owner distributions on the same day as fuel prepay

The fuel prepay autodraft hits Tuesday. The owner takes a distribution Monday because cash looks healthy. By Tuesday afternoon the account is short. Calendar distributions for the days after card deposits land, not before disbursements run.

2. Treating the line of credit as operating capital

A line of credit is for shocks, not for routine cash management. Operators who run the LOC at 50 percent balance through normal weeks have no reserve when a shock hits. Use the LOC for genuine timing gaps, pay it down when the gap closes.

3. Not modeling the credit card processing fee withdrawal

Many processors deduct fees daily or at month-end. A $25K monthly processing fee deducted on the 1st of the month puts an artificial dip in cash exactly when most operators are pulling distributions. Map the timing.

4. Forgetting about quarterly tax payments

Estimated federal and state income tax payments hit quarterly. For an operator pulling $300K a year in distributions, that is roughly $25K per quarter going out of operating cash. Plot every estimated payment in the forecast.

5. Running too lean on the operating account

The temptation to sweep cash into an interest-bearing account or a money market is real (rates are 4 to 5 percent in 2025-2026). But the friction of moving cash back when needed creates real timing risk. Keep at least 15 days of opex in the immediate operating account at all times.